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Growth Loops · Session 06 · Dates TBD

Close the Loop

Ship one measurable product growth loop

Ship AIPhoenix, ArizonaPress → to begin

Ship AIClose the Loop01/21

A circle drawn around a funnel does not make it compound.

A loop earns the name when one turn creates an output that becomes a measurable input to another turn.

Ship AIClose the Loop02/21

Tonight

  1. 01Separate a funnel, a feedback loop, and a growth loop
  2. 02Choose a mechanism grounded in real customer value
  3. 03Write the input, steps, output, re-entry, and cycle time
  4. 04Quantify one turn without pretending the model is certainty
  5. 05Find the weakest conversion or slowest cycle
  6. 06Write the experiment contract and decision rule
  7. 07Ship, inspect the events, and start a 30-day cadence
Ship AIClose the Loop03/21

Where we are

  1. Session 01Instrument the Journey
  2. Session 02First Value
  3. Session 03Repeat Value
  4. Session 04Read the Curve
  5. Session 05Before They Leave
  6. Session 06Close the Loop

The previous five sessions built the measurement, first value, repeat value, retention, and re-engagement layers. Tonight connects one proven behavior into a repeatable mechanism.

Ship AIClose the Loop04/21

Act one

Name the mechanism

Start with value already observed in the product. The loop should amplify that value exchange, not hide a weak funnel inside a circle.

Ship AIClose the Loop05/21

A funnel ends. A loop produces another input.

Funnel

  • A fixed pool enters
  • Each stage converts or loses part of it
  • The output is the destination
  • New volume must be added from outside
  • Optimize conversion through the path

Growth loop

  • A qualified input enters
  • The customer receives value
  • The action creates a new output
  • That output can re-enter as future input
  • Optimize throughput and cycle time

Funnels remain useful inside loops. They describe the conversions that determine how much of each turn survives.

Ship AIClose the Loop06/21

A collaboration loop, one turn

shared value
  1. 01A user creates a useful shared result
  2. 02A teammate receives value from it
  3. 03The teammate adds context or another action
  4. 04The shared workspace becomes more useful

The added context gives the original user a reason to return and can expose another teammate to the product. The value exchange, not the invite count, is the mechanism.

Ship AIClose the Loop07/21

Common loop shapes have different value exchanges

Output that can re-enterNecessary value
CollaborationA participating teammateShared work improves for both sides
ContentA useful public or indexed artifactThe artifact answers a real need
DataBetter structured state or recommendationsUse makes the next result better
RetentionSaved context that reduces future workReturning is easier or more valuable
MarketplaceSupply or demand that attracts the otherBoth sides complete the core exchange

A mechanism fails when the output benefits the company but not the participant expected to create it.

Ship AIClose the Loop08/21

Act two

Model one turn

Write the loop as a sequence of observable states, then attach conversion and elapsed time to each crossing.

Ship AIClose the Loop09/21

The loop model

  1. InputAn eligible user, account, object, or opportunity enters.
  2. Value actionThe participant completes the behavior worth amplifying.
  3. OutputThe action creates a teammate, artifact, data state, or saved context.
  4. Re-entryA defined share of outputs becomes eligible input for another turn.
  5. Cycle timeElapsed time from input to reusable output.

If the output cannot be named, counted, and observed re-entering, the diagram is a narrative — not yet a model.

Ship AIClose the Loop10/21

Quantify the turn without hiding assumptions

QuestionIllustrative measure
Eligible inputHow many can start?Activated workspaces with a recurring job
ConversionWhat share completes value?Useful shared result per eligible workspace
OutputWhat does completion create?Qualified teammate exposures
Re-entryWhat share becomes a new input?Exposed teammates who complete a value action
Cycle timeHow long does one turn take?Median time from share to teammate value

One-turn output is the product of eligible input and each conversion through re-entry. Track volume and time separately so a slow loop is not mistaken for a weak one.

Ship AIClose the Loop11/21

Exercise: trace a real turn

~/your-product

model input → value → output → re-entry

5 observable boundaries mappedconversion + cycle time attached2 assumptions marked unverifiedweakest crossing: recipient reaches first value

Choose one recent product example and follow it through every event. Record where the output re-entered, where it stopped, and which step lacks enough data to estimate honestly.

Do not fill missing cells with intuition. An unverified assumption is a useful result because it tells the experiment what to learn.

Ship AIClose the Loop12/21

Find the constraint, not the loudest metric

Weak conversion

  • Too few eligible inputs act
  • The value exchange is unclear
  • The output is low quality
  • Re-entry requires too much work

Slow cycle

  • The need recurs infrequently
  • A collaborator or approval waits
  • Processing or delivery is slow
  • The return trigger arrives too late

The same total output can come from a strong slow loop or a weak fast loop. The product intervention should match the actual constraint.

Ship AIClose the Loop13/21

Act three

Ship the experiment

The smallest useful experiment changes one crossing, preserves the value exchange, and defines what evidence will earn more investment.

Ship AIClose the Loop14/21

The experiment contract

  1. HypothesisChanging one mechanism should improve one loop outcome for one audience.
  2. PrimaryThe conversion or cycle-time metric tied to that mechanism.
  3. DiagnosticsUpstream and downstream events that explain movement.
  4. GuardrailsValue quality, trust, errors, and unwanted behavior.
  5. WindowEnough time for one or more natural turns to mature.
  6. DecisionShip, revise, or stop — with the rule written before launch.

A loop metric can rise because low-quality outputs increased. Guardrails protect the value exchange on both sides of the turn.

Ship AIClose the Loop15/21

Decide from a complete evidence packet

QuestionEvidence
Did the mechanism move?Primary conversion or cycle timeCompared on the defined audience
Why did it move?Diagnostic eventsThe intended path changed
Was value preserved?Quality and trust guardrailsNo hidden cost traded away
Did another input result?Output observed at re-entryThe loop actually closed
What next?Decision rule and caveatsShip, revise, or stop with an owner

A local metric win without observed re-entry may improve a funnel step without strengthening the loop.

Ship AIClose the Loop16/21

Live build: close one instrumented turn

~/your-product

launch → replay turn → inspect events → decide

audience + assignment verifiedvalue, output, re-entry events matched the modelguardrail failure path testedwrote 06-growth-loop/experiment-readout.md

Ship the bounded intervention and complete the loop as every affected role. Inspect each event and property, then record the first ship, revise, or stop decision without extrapolating beyond the observation window.

A working prototype plus trustworthy events is the finish line tonight. Compounding is observed over future turns, not declared at launch.

Ship AIClose the Loop17/21

The 30-day operating cadence

weekly
  1. 01Read mature loop and guardrail metrics
  2. 02Inspect the constraint and one real journey
  3. 03Choose ship, revise, stop, or keep observing
  4. 04Assign one owner and the next evidence date

A dashboard without an owner is storage. Put the decision and next evidence date in the same place as the metric.

Ship AIClose the Loop18/21

Growth Loops, complete

ArtifactCapability
01 · MeasurementEvents and scorecardTrust the journey data
02–03 · ValueActivation and engagementImprove first and repeat value
04–05 · DurabilityRetention, risk, re-engagementFind decay and earn a return
06 · LoopMechanism and experimentDecide from a closed turn

The system is not the six dashboards. It is the shared definitions, validated events, bounded experiments, and decisions they support.

Ship AIClose the Loop19/21

A loop compounds only after the output comes back.

Ship AIClose the Loop20/21

Next

Keep the loop honest

The deck, experiment contract, and 30-day cadence live on the session page. Keep the definitions versioned, the events validated, and the ship–revise–stop decision attached to every turn.

shipai.club · Free, always

Tonight's session page
Ship AIClose the Loop21/21
01/21